Long-term returns on bonds
Selecting the right fixed-income investment
Bond market timing
Total return for bonds has been 5.5 percent over past 70 years
But the best way to estimate future return is not past return, but to simply look at current yield for bonds trading at par
80 percent of expected return can be explained by current yield
Notice total return is different from current yield
A bond selling at a premium will have a deceptively high yield
You will have a capital loss in the bond as the bond nears maturity
In general, what you gain in higher current yield is eventually surrendered as loss in principal
Use maturity matching when it comes to all of your debts or investments
Short-term goals mean short-term investments
Emergency funds imply money market mutual funds or bank accounts
Home down payments or near-term college fund implies short-term bonds
Short-term bonds with a maturity of two to three years pay about 1 percent more than comparable money market mutual funds
The value of your short-term bond fund may increase or decrease slightly based on shifts in interest rates
Investing in short-term bond funds may subject yourself to capital gains taxes if held outside of retirement accounts
Long-term goals mean long-term investments
Saving for retirement means investing in a mixture of stocks and long-term bonds
Long-term bonds with a maturity of 10 years or more pay about 2 percent more than money market mutual funds
Long-term bonds also lock in your investment income and shield you from reinvestment risk
If you want to gamble on the direction of interest rates and try to make capital gains from bonds, you should invest in long-term bonds
Actually, invest in bonds with a long duration